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Demography is Destiny: Population Growth and the Global Economy

 

A talk given in Amsterdam at “The World Congress on the Family V” on August 11th 2009 by Steven E. Smoot 

 

May I start out by asking this question: How do we value children in today’s world? Do we value children as a blessing or as a burden? Has society been so indoctrinated with the idea that the world is over populated, that we are now willing to sacrifice children and a proven economic model that is essential for the growth and economic prosperity of every nation? Members of the forum today will explore important questions about the decline of the family and about below-replacement fertility and its affect on the global economy which has lead to a demographic winter which threatens serious social and economic consequences.  

 

Other questions that will be explored are:

• - Can the earth continue to sustain population growth?
• - Is the earth really overpopulated?
• - How have population control policies and programs implemented by the United Nations and other government funded organizations affected the fate and future of society?
• - Is population growth essential for a country’s continued growth, security, and    economic future?

In the documentaries;

"Demographic Winter, the decline of the human family" and the "Demographic Bomb, demography is destiny" tell of the decline of the family and how below-replacement fertility has negatively affected the global economy. They also tell of an ominous drama that is quietly unfolding around the world which is leading the world into a demographic winter.

 

In the world today we have seen a 50% decline in birthrates over the last 50 years. Over 90 countries around the world will not replace the previous generation. Even the UN Population Division shows that there will be 248 million less children under the age of 5 in 2050 then there is today.

 

Now ...some people would say, well isn't that good? Less people, less carbon foot prints to pollute mother earth.  But never before in history has society enjoyed economic prosperity with declining populations.

 

Perspective is important when it comes to understanding population, so let me first give a little perspective to the size of the world verses today’s world population: 

 

If we were to take the world population (which is approaching 6.8 billion) and gave every man, woman and child a quarter of an acre of land, giving a family of four an acre of land to cultivate, we would be able to put the entire population of the world in just one of the 11 countries of South America, Brazil, leaving the rest of the world totally uninhabited and leaving almost one-fifth of Brazil in open space.       

(Population 6.8 Billion, Brazil 3,286469 Sq. Miles = 2,103 340,160 acres, a family of four would have 1.24 acres of land to cultivate.)

 

Over the last century, the media and our schools and universities have consistently taught that the world is over populated and that more children and a growing population are bad for the environment and society. It has not been politically correct for politicians, teachers or professors to talk about the importance of population growth, for interwoven into the tapestry of human history is the fabric of academic thought that teaches that food supply cannot keep pace with world population growth.

 

Social engineers, environmentalists and politicians refer to this as the “Unsustainability Problem." The elite viewpoint that this planet cannot sustain future population growth is a claim that has been echoed around the world and throughout history by politicians, social engineers, and environmentalists.

 

This viewpoint was first made famous by Thomas Malthus, an English economist who wrote and published "The Principles of Population" in 1879, with the central idea being that food production cannot keep pace with population growth. This claim was made famous once again around the world by Paul Ehrlich in his 1968 runaway bestseller book "The Population Bomb". In this book, Ehrlich claimed that by the 1980's hundreds of millions of people would starve to death due to overpopulation and the lack of resources necessary to sustain population growth. However, history has shown that with human ingenuity and new technology food production can keep pace with the population growth.

 

Even as Ehrlich was making many absurd and unrealized prophecies of global starvation, Dr. Norman Borlaug, an American agricultural scientist and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize and the Congressional Gold Medal, was developing high yield, disease-resistant wheat varieties that would greatly increase the world's wheat production.

 

In 1965 through 1970, Dr. Borlaug introduced this seed to Pakistan and India. These two countries are two of the most highly dense populated countries of the world. In Pakistan, wheat yields went from 4.6 million tons in 1965 to over 21 million tons by 2000. And India wheat production went from 12.3 million tons in 1965 to 76.4 million tons of wheat produced in 2000. Greatly outpacing the rate of population growth and making these countries not only self-sufficient but major exporters of wheat.

 

After interviewing hundreds of scholars, demographers, economists and sociologists from around the world, our production team came to realize that with the disintegration of the natural family and with the increase in population control policies, the world is headed toward a demographic tipping point that threatens catastrophic economic and social consequences. Today, most of the world is experiencing a birth dearth - for it takes 2.1 children to replace the previous generation and all of Europe is only at 1.36.

 

History has shown that as a country’s population declines so does a country’s economic future. The findings of the many scholars that we interviewed show that a country’s economic future is tied closely to its demographic makeup and that as population increases, so does the stock of human ingenuity.

 

A good example from history on how birthrates have affected a country’s future prosperity is a comparison between the United States and Japan. After World War II, the US soldiers came home and had babies and America enjoyed the 81 million baby boom generation, which led to 40 years of great prosperity for America. As the baby boom generation hit their pick spending age and increased their consumer spending, the US economy sky rocketed.  It is individual consumer spending that drives the economy, for it represents over 70% of the United States Gross National Product.  

Where, on the other hand, Japan did not enjoy a baby boom after World War II. They had women in the workforce working for the war effort and war machine and after the war the women stayed in the workforce to clean up the ashes of destruction of World War II. Thus, they didn’t have a lot of children, but with everyone in the workforce, there economy did extremely well for the next 30 plus years, but they forgot one thing - children for their future. So from their market peek in the late 1990’s their stock market, the Nikkei, dropped 80% of its value over the next 14 years, and their real estate values dropped 60% across the board during that same time period.

 

Another example is found in Russia where the birth rate is only at 1.17. Dr. Victor Medkoft of the University of Moscow said in 2007 that if present trends continue, within 43 years Russia will lose almost half of its population. Today, Russia's population is declining by over 750,000 a year. At this level, how will Russia be able to man its factories, farms or even an army to secure their borders?

 

Even today, the United States could not replace its existing population, if it were not for children of immigrants.

 

Why is this important that a country understands something about demographics?  Because as they understand the role that demographics play as a great predictor of a country’s fate and future, they will come to realize that children are essential for a country’s economic survival. Countries like Russia, which are aborting more children than are being born, and countries like China, which has the One-Child policy and through selective abortions and infeicide killings has now left over a 100 million men that will not be able to get married because there are not enough women to go around, will come to realize that if they want economic prosperity, they need to re-examine their population control policies and programs.

 

So, if we want to save millions of children each year who are the innocent victims of abortion, social decay, civil unrest and economic strife, then we need to educate policy makers on the messages that are contained in these two important documentaries. 

 

I would ask you and your organizations to help us in getting these documentaries into the hands of policy makers and political leaders around the world. When policy makers come to understand that children are the lifeblood and the human capital needed for a country’s continued growth and economic prosperity and that children are a blessing and not a burden on society, then they will better see the importance and value that motherhood, marriage and family are to society as they come to realize that demography is their destiny.

 

Thank you,

 

Steven E. Smoot