Demographic Winter the Decline of the Human Family
Steven E. Smoot
“Demographic Winter” – This revealing documentary was the first to explore one of the most overlooked crisis of modern times, with the decline of traditional families, the world is experiencing lowed birth rates and rapidly aging populations.
Philip Longman, a demographer and author of the book, The Empty Cradle, shows: “How falling birthrates threatens world prosperity,” stating that: “The on-going global decline in human birthrates is the single most powerful force affecting the fate of nations and the future of society in the 21st. century.”
Doomsayers from Thomas Malthus who published in 1798, a book entitled: The Principle of Population, or Paul Ehrlich, book entitled: The Population Bomb, have both warned of “overpopulation” leading to depleted resources and mass starvation. In reality, growing populations have brought economic growth, prosperity and a higher standard of living.
What the world faces in the 21st century, is another type of demographic crisis, a “Demographic Winter” that threatens both social and economic consequences. With falling fertility rates and aging populations worldwide, political instability in many countries will follow.
The birthrate needed to replace the next generation is 2.1 children for every woman during her lifetime – This is needed, just to replace the current population. Today, there are approximately 90 countries around the world, which will not even be able to replace the previous generation.
In less than 40 years, fertility rates have fallen by over 50% worldwide. The United Nations Population Division predicts a worldwide further decline, of the birthrate to be at 2.05 by 2050. In much of the industrialized world, the birthrate now is much less.
- Europe might as well hang out a “Going Out of Business,” sign on its door. The average birth rate for the European Union is 1.36, well below the 2.1 needed for replacement. With many countries, like Italy and much of Eastern Europe below 1.2.• Russia is at a critical state, as their birth rate has fallen to 1.17, down from 2.4 in 1990. Russia recently woke up to the fact, that they were aborting more children then was being born. Today Russia is losing roughly 750,000 people a year. Its current population of 143 million is expected to decline to 112 million by 2050, showing almost as many abortions as live births in the Russian Federation, but they are starting to do something about it. In a desperate effort to stave off this Demographic Winter, the government is offering a baby bonus of 250,000 rubles (the equivalent of $9,200) for every child after the first, which makes it to age 3.• Worldwide, it is estimated that there are 6 million fewer children, 6 years of age and younger today, than there were in 1990. This is an initial tremor of the forecasted coming deep freeze. The United Population Division estimated that if present trends continue, by 2050 the world would have 248 million fewer children under 5 than it does today. Much of the industrialized world will soon be facing severe labor shortages. The European Union estimates a shortfall of 20 million workers by 2030.• The developed world, populations is rapidly aging with one of the hardest hit being Japan. In 1989, 11.6% of Japan’s population was over the age of 65. Less than 20 years later the senior population has grown to 21.1%. Its’ low birthrate, now at (1.25) and their graying population is why almost no one is talking about Japan as a place to invest. Today, the country of the rising sun is now setting. In the 1990s due to these severe demographic changes, Japan’s stock market fell by over 70%, off its all-time highs and their real estate market plummeted, seeing losses of up to 60%.
- The industrialized nations as a whole, those over 60 population, now constitute over 20% of the worlds population — a figure which will rise to 32% by 2050. By then, according to United Nations Population Division, these societies will have two seniors for every child. The developing world isn’t far behind, for example, in the Philippines, the birth rate dropped from 6 in the early 1970s to 2.8 today, with further declines in store. In Egypt, in the 1960s, the average woman had 7.3 children during her lifetime, compared to 3.7 today. Mexico’s birthrate is only 2.1, the same as America’s.This “Demographic Winter” will impact us all on many fronts:• What will happen in the world as there are fewer and fewer workers, to provide pensions for more and more retirees? At what point in time will the burden become so onerous, that young workers will simply rebel and refuse to support a system that they couldn’t possibly hope to benefit from?• How will Russia, which is expected to lose a third of its population by mid-point of this century, defend its borders or even man their farms and factories? If Russia, which occupies the largest territory of any nation, dissolves into enclaves of squabbling ethnic groups, it will destabilize both Europe and Asia.• Due to the falling birthrates, at some point in the century, the world’s population will begin to decline. Then the decline will become rapid. We could even reach population free-fall.• Throughout the course of history, there is no instance of economic growth accompanied by population decline. How can an industrial society be maintained with fewer and fewer workers and consumers?The foregoing is the backdrop for “Demographic Winter: the decline of the human family.” The documentary is an exploration of this phenomenon by experts — including demographers, sociologists and economists.Scholars like Gary Becker (Nobel Laureate in Economics at the University of Chicago), David Popenoe (a professor of sociology at Rutgers and the author of “War Over The Family”), Patrick Fagan (former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, currently Director of the Center for Family and Religion at the Family Research Council) and Phil Longman, a senior fellow with the New American Foundation, discuss the sober reality of humanity’s failure to reproduce itself, as well as causes and consequences thereof.The discussion is anything but dry and academic. These scholars bring their expertise to bear on a coming catastrophe that is now well below the radar screen of most nations consciousness, but one which will affect our future, far more than Global Warming or other so called crises, on which the media is fixated.
The 55-minutes DVD can be ordered HERE Just $9.99
“Demographic Winter” – Article in the Human Events Magazine
The burden of the world is now upon the children
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The World Congress on the Family V – Steven E Smoot
Announcing the Release of Demographic Winter Part II – ‘The Demographic Bomb’ – Press Release